Hindsight Can Be Foresight
I reckon 2020 vision begins with 2020 hindsight. It's only when we reflect on past patterns, that we can either break those patterns, or continue them into the future. In fact, when we reflect, there is a greater chance that we inflect and reach a positive tipping point.
Take the "rise of China" for example. China has been a dominant power for millennia but experienced a slight dark age for a couple of centuries. It's only when we reflect on their pattern of dominance with reflective hindsight, that their future dominance makes sense. China didn't come from nowhere, and Goldman Sachs is forced to re-evaluate when the BRIC nations will overtake the G7 every year (with a closer and closer time span due to the stalling economic growth of developed countries).
A futurist is like a historian of the future, but bases his or her predictions based on pattern recognition. It's only when we take time out and reflect on our own micro patterns, and global macro patterns that we can make any sort of intelligent predictions of what's next. Those patterns are based on hyper-aware hindsight, as opposed to any clairvoyant foresight.
This applies to both individuals and organisations. If you're looking to crafting a better future for your business or for yourself in your career management, it's important to spot, feel and position yourself according to future trends. It's also important to reflect on your brand's strengths, weaknesses and opportunities, given various future scenarios.
A future scenario cannot be painted, unless we have a good historical analysis of what has happened before. 2020 hindsight leads to 2020 foresight.
A moleskin diary filled with reflections, a scenario plan for your business based on key uncertainties, or a brain trust with advisors like a think tank can help you reflect on where you have been so that you can proceed in a grounded fashion.
How do you think your own or your organisation's past influences your future direction?
Can you see patterns that are continuing successfully into the future?
What do you need to start, stop, and continue doing?
What hindsight insights have led you to making better decisions about your future?
Does this sound very 'Back to the Future'?
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